Go to Top Go to Bottom
Asian-Australas J Anim Sci > Volume 19(7); 2006 > Article
Animal Breeding and Genetics
Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences 2006;19(7): 915-921.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5713/ajas.2006.915    Published online May 25, 2006.
Prediction of Future Milk Yield with Random Regression Model Using Test-day Records in Holstein Cows
Byoungho Park, Deukhwan Lee
Abstract
Various random regression models with different order of Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental and genetic effects were constructed to predict future milk yield of Holstein cows in Korea. A total of 257,908 test-day (TD) milk yield records from a total of 28,135 cows belonging to 1,090 herds were considered for estimating (co)variance of the random covariate coefficients using an expectation-maximization REML algorithm in an animal mixed model. The variances did not change much between the models, having different order of Legendre polynomial, but a decreasing trend was observed with increase in the order of Legendre polynomial in the model. The R-squared value of the model increased and the residual variance reduced with the increase in order of Legendre polynomial in the model. Therefore, a model with 5th order of Legendre polynomial was considered for predicting future milk yield. For predicting the future milk yield of cows, 132,771 TD records from 28,135 cows were randomly selected from the above data by way of preceding partial TD record, and then future milk yields were estimated using incomplete records from each cow randomly retained. Results suggested that we could predict the next four months milk yield with an error deviation of 4 kg. The correlation of more than 70% between predicted and observed values was estimated for the next four months milk yield. Even using only 3 TD records of some cows, the average milk yield of Korean Holstein cows would be predicted with high accuracy if compared with observed milk yield. Persistency of each cow was estimated which might be useful for selecting the cows with higher persistency. The results of the present study suggested the use of a 5th order Legendre polynomial to predict the future milk yield of each cow.
Keywords: Test Day; Holstein Cows; Random Regression Model; Future Milk Yield


Editorial Office
Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies(AAAP)
Room 708 Sammo Sporex, 23, Sillim-ro 59-gil, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08776, Korea   
TEL : +82-2-888-6558    FAX : +82-2-888-6559   
E-mail : jongkha@hotmail.com               

Copyright © 2019 by Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences. All rights reserved.

Close layer
prev next